ANALYTICS TO MINIMIZE PANDEMIC RISK
The cross-cutting USAID PREDICT Modeling & Analytics (M&A) team worked collaboratively with the project's surveillance, behavioral risk, laboratory, and information management teams to develop cutting-edge tools to better understand the disease emergence and spread, refine on-the-ground virus discovery efforts, and identify potential intervention strategies at high-risk animal-to-human interfaces. Ultimately, all of the models developed by the team help improve evidence-based strategies and One Health policy recommendations to minimize pandemic risk. The M&A team continues to focus on analyzing our extensive datasets to improve the efficiency of future in-country virus surveillance programs and the predictive power of our models.
Road-connected network for predicting pandemic influenza in Rwanda
Current Insights & Products:
How do we determine which viruses pose the greatest threats to humans? PREDICT scientists developed a new tool for ranking the risk of viral spillover from animals to humans. Read more here.
Identifying At-Risk Areas for Viral Spillover
PREDICT discovered Bombali ebolavirus in bats in West Africa. But where do these bats live and what areas may be at highest risk of spillover? Read more here.
Global Cost of Emerging Infectious Diseases
Here we make the economic case for investing in large-scale disease surveillance and prevention programs such as the Global Virome Project.
UNDERSTANDING CROSS-SPECIES TRANSMISSION OF BAT CORONAVIRUSES IN CHINA
How did SARS-CoV-2 emerge? Through the PREDICT project’s work in China we identified hotspots for coronavirus (CoV) emergence and detected two CoV sequences in bats which are the closest known relatives of the virus causing COVID-19.
IDENTIFYING THE NEXT ZIKA
The pandemic spread of Zika emphasized the need to better understand the distribution, host range, and epidemic potential of other understudied flaviviruses. Here we explore both current and potential risks of flavivirus spillover and spread.
Peak Season for Viral Spillover
Our scientists sampled straw-colored fruit bats in Ghana and Tanzania over the course of a year to learn about the peak season for shedding viruses and to identify the best times of year for disease control. Read more here.
Hotspots of Emerging Zoonoses
Where will the next viral threat emerge? Here we explore the hotspots for emerging zoonoses from wildlife.
enhancing collaboration on emerging infectious diseases research
To counter the significant global health threat that emerging infectious diseases represent, China and the US have been leading efforts in preparedness with unparalleled resources, widespread engagement, and national and geopolitical imperatives to contribute to global health security.
SIMULATION:
NOVEL BAT CORONAVIRUS FROM GUANO HARVEST
What would happen if a new virus discovered through the PREDICT project spilled over into humans? Here we simulate the emergence and spread of a newly detected coronavirus from bat guano to people and provide recommendations for disease control to prevent a pandemic.
IMPROVING VIRAL SAMPLING & DISCOVERY
Here we highlight our innovative analytical tool that answers the question: how many samples do we need to collect and test to find the majority of viruses in an animal host?